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Document Overview
This is an addendum to the Mayor's Transport Strategy (MTS) 2018, setting out Proposal 24.1 from the Mayor of London. It concerns the "triple challenges" of toxic air pollution, the climate emergency and traffic congestion in London, and proposes using road user charging schemes to address them.
Toxic Air Pollution
- The document says nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM) are the pollutants of greatest concern in London.
- The central London Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) began in April 2019 and was extended to inner London in October 2021.
- Overall compliance in central London rose from 39 per cent when the scheme was announced to 87 per cent two years after implementation.
- In the central zone, roadside NO2 fell 44 per cent between February 2017 and January 2020, and PM2.5 fell 27 per cent.
- State schools in areas exceeding legal NO2 limits fell from 455 in 2016 to 20 in 2019, a reduction of 96 per cent.
- 88 per cent of Londoners live in areas above the lowest WHO interim PM2.5 target of 10 μg m-3. The document estimates 225,000 Londoners (2.8 per cent) live where NO2 exceeds the new WHO interim target.
- Outer London's emissions have fallen more slowly and it has the greatest share of premature deaths related to poor air quality.
Climate Emergency
- The document states that 25 per cent of the city's carbon emissions come from road transport.
- It reports an estimated six per cent reduction in CO2 emissions in the central ULEZ between 2016 and 2019, compared with a scenario without the ULEZ.
- CO2 emissions from cars and vans in the expanded zone are expected to fall by five per cent in the first year.
- It cites the national net zero strategy of October 2021, the IPCC's February 2022 warnings, and the GLA's January 2022 Element Energy report on London's 2030 net zero target.
- Reducing car vehicle kilometres travelled by 27 per cent by 2030 is identified as a further action.
Traffic Congestion
- Vehicle congestion cost London £5.1 billion in 2021, and congestion levels have returned to close to pre-Covid-19 levels.
- Congestion worsens air pollution and carbon emissions and affects bus journey times and freight and emergency services.
- Early indications suggest the inner London ULEZ reduced traffic by around 21,000 vehicles, about two per cent, on an average day in the expanded zone compared with the month before launch.
Evidence and Methodology
- The figures draw on TfL and GLA reports, including the Ultra Low Emission Zone Six Month Report, the Expanded ULEZ First Month Report (2021), the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI) and Air quality in London 2016-2020.
- Other sources include the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and an INRIX 2021 traffic scorecard.
- Some outer London compliance figures are described as estimates, and the document states that some air quality figures are the Mayor's own estimates.
Proposal 24.1
- The Mayor, through TfL and the boroughs, will seek to address the triple challenges through road user charging schemes, including by expanding the ULEZ London-wide.
- The document states that such schemes can support the target of 80 per cent sustainable mode share by 2041, Vision Zero for road danger, and the 20 minutes of daily active travel recommended for good health.
- New or amended schemes must follow statutory procedure, including consultation requirements.
Purpose of Proposal 24.1 for London's Transport Policy
The document presents Proposal 24.1 as the Mayor's new proposal for tackling air pollution, carbon emissions and congestion together through reduced traffic. It states that reducing traffic is key to each challenge and that road user charging will need to be part of the solution.